Data Analytics Model Shows How Colleges Can Reduce COVID-19 Cases

December 22, 2020 - As colleges begin to develop strategies to control COVID-19 cases during the spring semester, researchers are leveraging data analytics models to determine which methods will be most effective.

According to a study published in Annals of Internal Medicine, a combination of mandatory mask-wearing policies and widespread social distancing will prevent 87 percent of infections among students and faculty.

Researchers also found that even if campuses remain closed, faculty would likely get infected from the surrounding community, and students who return to live off campus in college towns would likely get infected as well.

Although the recent approval of COVID-19 vaccines is a promising new development, the team noted that college-aged individuals will probably be among the last to receive them.

"This next semester represents a critical time in the pandemic. While the vaccine rollout has begun, it is unlikely that most college students will be eligible for the vaccine until late in the spring semester," said lead author Elena Losina, PhD, Director of the Policy and Innovation eValuations in Orthopedic Treatments (PIVOT) Center at the Brigham.

"However, our modeling shows that colleges and universities can put effective programs in place to mitigate infections. This analysis is designed to help individuals and institutions make decisions using a formal, data-driven approach."

To determine the most effective strategies for reducing COVID-19 cases on college campuses, researchers evaluated 24 mitigation strategies. The methods were based on four approaches: social distancing, mask-wearing policies, isolation, and laboratory testing.

The group compared results from a minimal social distancing program, in which only large gatherings like sporting events or concerts were cancelled, and an extensive social distancing program where all large classes and 50 percent of smaller classes were taught online. Laboratory testing ranged from no testing of asymptomatic students and faculty to routine testing at 14-, 7-, or 3-day intervals.

The data analytics model predicted that without any mitigation efforts, approximately 75 percent of students and 16 percent of faculty would become infected on a college campus. Closing the campus, on the other hand, would reduce student infections by 63 percent, with most infections coming from students living off campus.

With minimum social distancing, colleges would reduce student infections by just 16 percent. Implementing a mandatory masking policy would be more effective in preventing infections than either minimum or extensive social distancing, researchers stated.

The most successful strategy would be to combine social distancing and masking, which would prevent 87 percent of infections among students and faculty and would cost $170 per infection prevented.

Adding routine laboratory testing to a policy that involves extensive social distancing and mask-wearing could reduce infections the most, but this would result in a high cost per infection prevented.

"If colleges put less effort into social distancing and mask-wearing policies, they need to rely more on routine laboratory testing at higher cost to reduce the spread of COVID-19. If less costly tests were available, then routine testing would be feasible in more college settings," said co-senior author Kenneth A. Freedberg, director of the Medical Practice Evaluation Center at Massachusetts General Hospital and a professor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School.

The study’s results emphasize how critical it is for college campuses to implement mask-wearing and social distancing to prevent COVID-19 outbreaks.

"This analysis quantifies the value of implementing and committing to mask-wearing and social distancing in college campuses as a key to operating safely during the COVID-19 pandemic," said co-senior author Pooyan Kazemian, PhD, an assistant professor of operations in the Weatherhead School of Management at Case Western Reserve University.

"Extensive social distancing in college campuses with a hybrid educational system, combined with a mandatory mask-wearing policy, can prevent the vast majority of COVID-19 cases on college campuses."

Although the team did try to analyze the major mitigation strategies that colleges are considering, researchers noted that they could not examine all strategies and the analysis was limited to one semester.

“It's critical to consider the tradeoffs and costs of mitigation efforts and what's feasible for colleges and universities whose budgets vary widely," said Losina.

"Our analysis showed how colleges can develop strategies to help keep infections at bay. We hope that by the end of next semester, vaccines will be available to many students and faculty. Until then, preventing infections should continue to be the highest priority."