COVID-19 Sparks Decline in Life Expectancy, Highlights Disparities

June 28, 2021 - In an updated analysis, data showed that COVID-19 reduced life expectancy in the United States by 1.3 years in the year 2020. Especially impacted were Black and Latino populations, revealing significant disparities regarding race and ethnicity. The study was published in JAMA Network.

Lead author Theresa Andrasfay, a postdoctoral scholar at the USC Leonard Davis School of Gerontology, and coauthor Noreen Goldman of Princeton University first studied the pandemic’s impact on life expectancy in October 2020. The initial study predicted the largest single-year drop in life expectancy in about 40 years, hitting its lowest average since 2003.

The analysis compared more the 380,000 US COVID-19 deaths in 2020 to the life expectancies in 2018. The results indicated a decrease in life expectancy by 1.31 years, bringing the average down to 77.43 years. However, larger reductions in life expectancy were present among Black and Latino populations. While White populations saw a reduction of 0.94 years off their life expectancy, the Latino population’s loss was three times higher at 3.03 years. For Black populations, they saw a reduction of life expectancy twice as large at 1.90 years.

“Impacts on life expectancy are likely to be even larger once excess mortality from other causes is taken into account," Andrasfay said in a press release.

As the pandemic has progressed since last fall, White populations have also seen a change in total average life expectancy loss. While projections originally predicted to lose 0.68 years, the updated analysis now shows 0.94 years of lost life expectancy.

"Since our October 2020 projections, disproportionately white Midwestern and Mountain states experienced surges in COVID-19 cases and deaths," Andrasfay explained. "As a result, the disparities are not quite as large as we initially projected, but are still striking."

As stated in the previous study back in October, Black and Latino Americans bore a disproportionate share of COVID-19 infections and deaths. According to Andrasfay, this burden can be attributed to social and economic inequalities. Latinos have lower rates of health insurance, are more likely to live in multi-generational or crowded homes, and are more likely to work frontline jobs with high levels of COVID-19 exposure.

"Life expectancy is a metric of population-level mortality in a given year, and it is sensitive to deaths at younger ages," Andrasfay explained. "Though COVID-19 disproportionately killed older Americans, substantial numbers of younger Black and Latino Americans had their lives taken by COVID-19, which contributed to greater life expectancy reductions for these populations."

The team also examined data from the first few months of 2021. The data reflected that the pandemic is still affecting the average life expectancy.

"Though it is too early to estimate 2021 life expectancy, the deaths that occurred in just the first three months of 2021 already indicate that 2021 will have reduced life expectancy compared to pre-pandemic levels, and substantial racial and ethnic disparities in these reductions will persist," Andrasfay said.

"The ultimate impact of COVID-19 on 2021 US life expectancy will depend on whether there is sufficient and equitable vaccination across the US. Looking to the future beyond COVID-19, reducing racial disparities in life expectancy requires investments beyond healthcare, including a commitment to make the economy more equitable."